Saturday, August 15, 2009

Swine Flu Will Likely Sicken Billions But Kill at a Low Rate

A “fast and dirty” analysis of the spread of swine flu far has led researchers to believe that the virus eventually turn into a true pandemic infecting about a third of the world’s population–but they hasten to add that the analysis also suggests that the flu doesn’t have a devastating death rate.

Lead researcher Neil Ferguson, a member of the World Health Organization’s emergency committee for the outbreak, says: “This virus really does have full pandemic potential. It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world’s population. To put that into context, normal seasonal flu every year probably affects around 10% of the world’s population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual” .

The Analysis, published in Science, also roughly estimates that the flu has a fatality rate of .4 percent, meaning that it kills 4 people out of every 1,000 infected. That makes the swine flu virus about as dangerous as the virus behind a 1957 pandemic that killed 2 million people worldwide. But it’s not nearly as lethal as the bug that caused the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic Seasonal flu has a fatality rate of less than .1 percent, and kills more than 250,000 people each year.

While global hysteria regarding swine flu has subsided somewhat, confirmed cases continue to mount. Yesterday, the World Health Organization said that swine flu has been confirmed in 4,694 people around the world, with the bulk of the cases in North America. Sixty-one people have died, including 56 in Mexico, three in the U.S., and one each in Canada and Costa Rica, health officials said. The U.S. confirmed 2,618 cases in 44 states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

One mystery is why the virus seems to cause more severe symptoms in young people: U.S. health officials say the median age of people hospitalized with swine flu is 15 years old. Researchers say that could be a troubling sign that young and healthy people are more vulnerable to the virus–but in a contradictory finding, researchers have also found that many of the people who have died from swine flu had preexisting health problems. One possible explanation, says Ferguson, is that flu viruses that resemble the current swine flu virus may be commonly seen in normal seasonal flu epidemics. Adults are more likely to have encountered those viruses and developed immunity to them, and it may be that in some cases this immunity is enough to provide protection against swine flu.

While the findings of this first analysis are far from definitive, they do suggest that world health officials should quickly decide whether to start production of a swine flu vaccine, which could be ready before autumn comes to the northern hemisphere, possibly sparking a new outbreak. “One of the key decisions which has to be made this week by the world community is how much do we switch over current vaccine production for seasonal flu to make a vaccine against this particular virus?” , says Ferguson.

Swine Flu Pandemic Economic Costs


World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the swine flu outbreak in Mexico and the U.S. is a health emergency of international concern.

Reuters has put together a list of estimates of the economics costs that may be incurred if swine flu becomes a full out pandemic.

  • The World Bank in 2008 that a flu pandemic could cost $3 trillion and result in a nearly 5 percent drop in world gross domestic product. The World Bank has estimated that more than 70 million people could die worldwide in a severe pandemic.
  • Australian independent think-tank Lowy Institute for International Policy estimated in 2006 that in the worst-case scenario, a flu pandemic could wipe $4.4 trillion off global economic output.
  • Two reports in the United States in 2005 estimated that a flu pandemic could cause a serious recession of the U.S. economy, with immediate costs of between $500 billion and $675 billion.
  • One report, from the Congressional Budget Office, said hospitals would have difficulty controlling infection and might become sources for spreading the illness.
  • A second report by New Jersey-based WBB Securities predicted a one-year economic loss of $488 billion and a permanent economic loss of $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy.
  • SARS in 2003 disrupted travel, trade and the workplace and cost the Asia Pacific region $40 billion. It lasted for six months, killing 775 of the 8,000 people it infected in 25 countries.
  • Between the autumn of 1918 and the spring of 1919, 548,452 people died of swine flu in the US.

Orgin of Swine Flu

A better understanding of how the new strain of influenza arose

YOU are now officially permitted to blame the pigs. When a strain of influenza with pandemic potential struck in April, it was generally referred to as “swine flu” because it seemed similar to an existing group of strains, known as A/H1N1, which are commonly found in pigs. But when it became clear that the new bug was being spread by people, not porkers, the pig-breeding industry complained that it was being unfairly maligned. It also became apparent that the new virus contains bits and pieces derived from avian and human strains of influenza, as well as porcine ones, further muddying its origins.

A new study, however, suggests pigs really were to blame. Several dozen researchers, led by Rebecca Garten of America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), sequenced full or partial genomes of 76 samples of the new virus, which has afflicted almost 13,000 people around the world so far. In a paper published in Science, they confirm that the closest genetic relatives of the new virus are swine-flu strains from both North America and Eurasia. The virus is made of eight gene segments of known provenance but which have not previously been seen in this combination. The genetic material in them is indeed a hotchpotch derived from avian, human and swine sources, but all eight segments come most recently from pigs.

Swine Flu-Ayurvedic Herbal Treatment


The Ayurvedic treatment of swine flu is aimed at treating the symptoms, controlling the virus, and preventing complications by boosting the immune status of the body. Medicines like Tribhuvan-Kirti-Ras, Sitopaladi-Churna, Triphal-Guggulu, Maha-Sudarshan-Churna, Shwas-Kuthar-Ras, Laxmi-Narayan-Ras, Sut-Shekhar-Ras and Samshamani-Vati can be used to treat the flu-like symptoms of fever, bodyache and cough. Herbal medicines like Chirayta (Swertia chirata), Tulsi (Ocimum sanctum), Pippali (Piper longum), Vishwa (Zinziber officinalis), Haridra (Curcuma longa), Som (Ephedra vulgaris), Dhatura (Dhatura fastiosa) and Kantakari (Solanum xanthocarpum) can also be used for this purpose. Gastro-intestinal symptoms can be treated using medicines like Panchamrut-Parpati, Kutaj-Parpati, Kutaj-Ghan-Vati, Laghu-Sutshekhar-Ras and herbal medicines like Vishwa, Kutaj (Holarrhina antidysentrica), Musta (Cyperus rotundus) and Bilva (Aegle marmelos).

Herbal medicines with antiviral activity can be used to prevent or reduce the effects of the viral infection. These medicines include Yashtimadhuk (Glycyrrhiza glabra), Tulsi, Bhumiamalaki (Phyllanthus niruri), Haridra, Daruharidra (Berberis aristata), Kutki (Picrorrhiza kurroa), Chitrak (Plumbago zeylanica) and Amalaki (Emblica officinalis). In the case of swine flu, the earlier these medicines are started, the better the therapeutic effect.

It is also important to boost the immune status of the body in order to bring about a faster recovery and prevent complications. This can be done by using medicines like Shatavari (Asparagus racemosus), Ashwagandha (Withania somnifera), Bala (Sida cordifolia), Naagbala (Grewia hirsuta), Abhrak-Bhasma, Suvarna-Bhasma, Laghu-Malini-Vasant, Madhu-Malini-Vasant, Suvarna-Malini-Vasant and Suvarna-Parpati. These medicines can also be used for preventive purposes, both by the normal, unaffected population and also by those who are at special risk; for example, close contacts of affected individuals, and medical and para-medical staff.

The herbal medicine called Pippali has a special therapeutic affinity for the mucosa of the respiratory tract. It can reduce inflammation, swelling and excessive secretions in the lungs, throat and nose. In addition, it also normalizes the damage done to the mucosal lining due to acute and chronic disease. In acute disease of the respiratory tract, it is usually given in small doses along with other medicines. In chronic diseases, it is given in progressively increasing doses till tolerance, or till a pre-determined dose, and then reduced gradually. This tonifying medication is known as "Vardhmaan-Pippali-Rasayan". This can be judiciously used to prevent serious damage due to swine flu infection, or as a preventive medication in individuals at risk.

It is important to take adequate preventive measures to keep the swine flu infection from spreading. Symptomatic individuals should observe voluntary quarantine for a period of seven to fourteen days, which is usually the time the contagious stage lasts. Simple measures like using tissue paper for nasal secretions, and disposing off these, can significantly reduce the risk of transmission to others.


Swine Flu Symptons

Although the name 'swine flu' brings up a lot of extra fear and worry, it is important to note that swine flu is just an influenza A H1N1 virus.

That means that it is just another type of flu virus, just like that causes our typical seasonal flu symptoms. The big difference is that the current swine influenza A (H1N1) virus has components of pig and bird influenza viruses in it, so that humans don't have any immunity to it. That is what made it more likely that it would become a pandemic virus (have the ability to cause a global outbreak) because it could easily spread from person-to-person.

Swine Flu Symptoms

According to the CDC, like seasonal flu, symptoms of swine flu infections can include:

  • fever, which is usually high, but unlike seasonal flu, is sometimes absent
  • cough
  • runny nose or stuffy nose
  • sore throat
  • body aches
  • headache
  • chills
  • fatigue or tiredness, which can be extreme
  • diarrhea and vomiting, sometimes, but more commonly seen than with seasonal flu

Signs of a more serious swine flu infection might include pneumonia and respiratory failure.

If your child has symptoms of swine flu, you should avoid other people and call your pediatrician who might do a rapid flu test to see if he has an influenza A infection. Further testing can then be done to see if it is a swine flu infection. (Samples can be sent to local and state health departments and the CDC for confirmation of swine flu, especially if a child is in the hospital.)

What is Swine Flu ??


Caused by influenza type A virus, there are regular outbreaks among herds of pigs, where the disease causes high levels of illness but is rarely fatal.It tends to spread in autumn and winter but can circulate all year round.

There are many different types of swine flu and like human flu, the infection is constantly changing.

Swine flu does not normally infect humans, although sporadic cases do occur usually in people who have had close contact with pigs.

There have also been rare documented cases of humans passing the infection to other humans.

Human to human transmission of swine flu thought to spread in the same way as seasonal flu – through coughing and sneezing.

The outbreak in Mexico seems to involve a new type of swine flu that contains DNA that is typically found in avian and human viruses.

The World Health Organization has confirmed at least some of the cases are caused by this new strain of H1N1.

"We are very, very concerned," World Health Organisation (WHO) spokesman Thomas Abraham said. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human... It's all hands on deck at the moment."

It is genetically different from the fully human H1N1 seasonal influenza virus that has been circulating globally for the past few years. It contains DNA that is typical to avian, swine and human viruses, including elements from European and Asian swine viruses

When any new strain of flu emerges that acquires the ability to pass from person to person, it is monitored very closely in case it has the potential to spark a pandemic.

The WHO is concerned but says it is too soon to change the threat level warning for a pandemic. However, it has convened an expert panel to consider whether to raise the alert level or issue travel advisories.

It might already be too late to contain the outbreak, a prominent US pandemic flu expert said.

Dr Michael Osterholm, a public health expert at the University of Minnesota, said given how quickly flu can spread around the globe, if these are the first signs of a pandemic, then there are probably cases incubating in other parts of the world already.

"Literally hundreds and thousands of travellers come in and out of Mexico City every day," Dr Osterholm said. "You'd have to believe there's been more unrecognised transmission that's occurred."

There is no vaccine that specifically protects against swine flu, and it was unclear how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer.

However, the CDC says two flu drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza, seem effective against the new strain. Roche, the maker of Tamiflu, said the company is prepared to immediately deploy a stockpile of the drug if requested.

Both drugs must be taken early, within a few days of the onset of symptoms, to be most effective. There have also been concerns that some forms of flu have been developing resistance to the drugs.

Scientists have long been concerned that a new flu virus could launch a worldwide pandemic of a killer disease.

A new pandemic flu virus could evolve when different flu viruses infect a pig, a person or a bird, mingling their genetic material. The resulting hybrid could spread quickly because people would have no natural defences against it.

The most notorious flu pandemic is thought to have killed at least 40 million people worldwide in 1918-19. Two other, less deadly flu pandemics struck in 1957 and 1968.



Ayurvedic Medicine Tips for Swine Flu

Swin flu is a big problem around the world. Recent report said that more than 1000 cases of the Swin Flu exiting in India only. The famous Indian Yoga guru Baba Ramdev has given some Ayurvedic Medicine for Swine Flu-H1 N1.

Baba Ramdev said at Delhi in Tuesday about Swin Flu, Swin flu is cause of lack of resistant power of our bodies. He also says that yoga had the power to cure H1N1 Virus. He told that every body should increase his resistant power.

He has given some Ayurvedic medicine tips to people which can save from H1N1 Flu. He said “Take Giloy (Amta)’s one foot long branch and seven leaf of Tulsi and mix it and collect juice of this mixture in a pot. Now boil this juice and drink it. This herbal juice increases our body resistant up to three times.”

He told the people that Yoga cures H1N1 virus and cotton cloth should be wrapped around face while in crowded places. Every healthy people can fight against Swine flu. He gave advice to people that adopt a healthy and fit life with exercise. He claimed that several patients of diseases like chicken pox and dengue were treated with the help of Indian medicinal plants; swine flu also can be treated with the help of these.

In the video Baba Ramdev shows Swine Flu (H1N1) Ayurvedic medicine ,during a press conference at Constitution Club in New Delhi on Tuesday August 11th.